A prominent Republican strategist has warned of a grim future for Vice President JD Vance.
Sarah Longwell appeared on Pod Save America on Sunday and shared insights she has gained from doing multiple weekly focus groups with voters.
Longwell discusses those findings on her political podcast The Focus Group and publishes The Bulwark, a conservative news site that is critical of the president.
She told Pod Save America host Tommy Vietor that her research includes asking Trump voters who they would like to run the Republican Party in 2028 and beyond–and it is not good news for Vance, with a new respect for Secretary of State Marco Rubio surfacing in the data.
Longwell said many Trump voters she has polled view Rubio as a “stabilizing force” compared to his peers in the administration, including Vance, 41. Rubio, 54, has earned the nickname “Secretary of Everything” due to his heavy workload.
Rubio became the first person since Henry Kissinger to serve simultaneously as secretary of state and national security adviser. He took a key role in the transition of the Venezuelan government and in February, stepped down after a year as acting archivist of the United States.
“I think what people are taking away from that is like, there is one person in this administration who’s not a total clown,” Longwell told Pod Save America of GOP voters’ impression of Rubio.
“And so you gotta give him all the jobs because he’s the only actual serious person.”
The strategist also revealed GOP voters displayed a more brutal personal reaction to Vance.
Suggesting she doesn’t really “feel” Vance’s chances, Longwell said focus groups allow her to track the popularity of different candidates, and it is not boding well for the VP.
“He’s got total Ron DeSantis vibes from Republican voters,” Longwell said of Vance.
“The longer they look at it, the more they’re like, ‘Eh,’” she said, shrugging her shoulders. “They want to like him... but he’s not lighting anybody up.”
DeSantis was also viewed as Trump’s heir apparent after a strong re-election victory as Florida governor in 2022. Things turned sour and DeSantis launched his campaign on in May 2023, pitching himself as a conservative alternative to Trump. Trump labeled him “Ron DeSanctimonious.” By January 2024, he backed out and endorsed Trump, stating he had realized that Republican voters “want to give Donald Trump another chance”.
The findings back reports last week that some of Trump’s own top advisers were privately pushing for Rubio to become the 2028 Republican nominee.
One senior White House official told Politico that Rubio is “loyal, wicked smart, articulate and very seasoned,” and noted that he is “a winner.”
“He marries normalcy, common sense, with a bit of trump/MAGA twang very well,” a GOP operative close to the White House texted Politico. “He’s able to rationalize to those who may be angry. He’s at least the best at making it make sense. He’s just a very smooth spox for POTUS.”
During her Pod Save America appearance, Longwell noted Vance was now in a “sour spot” with two different groups of current GOP voters she identified in her polling.
Some are joining influential Republicans like broadcaster Tucker Carlson in now publicly questioning Trump over issues like the Iran war and the Epstein files, while others are holding firm to the MAGA ideals.
Longwell believed Vance thought “he was going to be able to stand over both (groups) and bring them together, and instead he’s sitting in the bad spot where Tucker’s got this part and Rubio’s starting to marshal the MAGA establishment over here. That is just so interesting to me.”
“It also doesn’t help that Donald Trump walks around the White House being like ‘Who do you like better? JD or Marco?’” Longwell added.
The Daily Beast has contacted the White House for comment.
During Pod Save America, Longwell also shared findings from Trump supporters in her focus groups when asked how they felt things were going in America.
“There was only one answer to that question that we are hearing right now,” she said. “It is bad. Nobody thinks things are good. Including some of the people who still support Trump... the big thing is costs, right? Gas prices are high, we’re suddenly in a war with Iran. ‘I wanted Trump to deport criminals but he’s doing all this other stuff.’”
She added that Trump supporters in the focus groups feel “the country is a power keg. They feel like we’re too divided. They’re scared about civil war.”
“There’s this like deep pervading sense or pervasive sense of unease,” she added. “When prices are high people’s anxiety is high and they’ve been high kind of now for a long time. And so people are starting to crack.”
