White House trade guru Peter Navarro guaranteed Fox News viewers there would be “no recession” after Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs.
Speaking to host Laura Ingraham on Monday evening, Navarro urged investors not to panic and sell their stocks, assuring them the end of the economic shock was in sight. His bold certainty that a recession won’t happen came even as several leading investment banks have raised their recession risk forecasts.
When asked by Ingraham when he thinks the markets might turn around, Navarro answered: “It’s finding a bottom now, but look, here’s the thing, it’s going to shift over and it’s going to be companies in the S&P 500 who are the first to produce here.”
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“Those are the ones going to lead to recovery, and it’s going to happen. Dow 50,000, I guarantee that,” Navarro continued, speaking on the day the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9 percent to close under 38,000.
“And I guarantee no recession, OK?” Navarro went on. “Why? Because when we pass the biggest, broadest tax cut in history within a matter of months, that’s going to be a great stimulus. There’s not going to be any inflation. We’ve already had a significant drop, a huge drop in oil prices, Laura. That’s like a point off the CPI. We’re gonna have lower yields and mortgage.”
The massive market rout sparked by Trump’s tariff announcements last week has stoked fears that a recession before the end of the year is now more likely.
In a note titled “There Will Be Blood,” JPMorgan Chief Economist Bruce Kasman said the chance of a global recession had risen from 40 percent to 60 percent over the weekend. Meanwhile, Reuters reports that Goldman Sachs raised its recession probability twice in a week from 20 percent to 45 percent.
“The increase in our recession probability reflects the sharp deterioration in household and business confidence in the outlook over the last month,” a report from the investment giant stated.
Navarro’s remarks mirrored those made by President Trump on Monday, who warned critics of his tariff policy not to be “weak” or “stupid” and insisted an economic turnaround was in sight.
“The United States has a chance to do something that should have been done DECADES AGO,” the president wrote on Truth Social. “Don’t be Weak! Don’t be Stupid!”
Coining a new phrase for his detractors, he added: “Don’t be a PANICAN (A new party based on Weak and Stupid people!). Be Strong, Courageous, and Patient, and GREATNESS will be the result!”
