Harry Enten has crunched the midterm numbers, and he says Donald Trump’s party is facing a blowout.
Enten, CNN’s chief data analyst, said Democrats now lead the generic congressional ballot by 10 points, up from 4 points a year ago. According to him, this puts the Democrats on track for 238 House seats on Nov. 3, with a strong chance of coming out on top in both chambers.
“The midterms are just days away, and I’m poring over hundreds, no thousands, of polls and data points,” Enten said on his show, The Enten Scale.
“And you know what the numbers are telling me? They are telling me that we are heading towards blowout territory. My goodness gracious.”
Enten blamed the GOP’s woes on the 80-year-old president, whose net approval rating is now minus 35.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos survey, conducted Oct. 16-19, found just 31 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing, while 66 percent disapprove. Reuters reported that that is the lowest mark Trump has ever received.
“My goodness gracious. That is atrocious. That is atrocious,” Enten said.
The congressional ballot isn’t looking any better. Enten said Democrats lead by an average of 10 points, and that same Reuters/Ipsos poll had them up 12.
“That easily overcomes any redistricting,” he said. “It’s really the type of thing that if you’re a Republican, you want to be calling your office about, calling home, saying, ‘Please, please, no, no, no.’ But you know what? That’s what the polls are saying.”
Enten gave a 71 percent chance of a “blowout”—when one party wins at least 230 House seats. Democrats account for nearly all of that, at 69 percent. Republicans sit at 2 percent.
“We haven’t seen the type of error necessary for [Republicans] to actually blow out the Democrats,” he said.
But it wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows for the Democrats. Enten warned that mid-October ballot polls have underestimated Republicans 15 of 16 times since 1994. But he said even in a worst-case polling scenario, the GOP’s house majority was unsalvageable.
“You know what was the largest 21st century error? Well, it was about 4.5 points,” he said.
“If in fact that happened to Democrats and they were on the receiving end essentially of underperforming their polls, well, what would that mean? Well, they would still win the national House vote by 5.3 points, which would in fact overcome redistricting.”
The Senate is a tougher battleground. But Democrats are still holding their own in deep-red states.
In Ohio, a Marist poll has Sherrod Brown up 4 points on Republican Sen. Jon Husted.
In Texas, Texas Public Opinion Research found Democrat James Talarico leading Ken Paxton 51 percent to 47 percent.
Enten also pointed to rising gas prices. He said that since the start of Trump’s war on Iran in February they have climbed more than 50 percent in Michigan, Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska.
Enten’s final tally gave Democrats a 57 percent chance of winning at least 52 Senate seats and Republicans a 24 percent shot at 51 or more.
This gives the Democrats an 81 percent chance of winning comfortably.
“It’s possible, but it’s only about a 1-in-5 chance,” Enten said of a down-to-the-wire finish.
Trump rallied in Port Huron, Michigan, on Sunday for Senate candidate Mike Rogers, who is trailing Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.
While Enten’s latest video aired on CNN, Trump instead curated an Enten highlight reel on Truth Social, spending Sunday night raiding the CNN vault for Enten’s kindest words and firing off three old clips within roughly a minute of each other.
The most vintage pick is an August 2025 segment in which Enten declared that, “love it, like it, lump it,” Trump was remaking America. That was 14 months and several approval-rating lows ago.
Next came an Aug. 26 clip of Enten touting a May poll that found 53 percent of Republicans admire Trump more than any other GOP president. Trump apparently loves that one so much he already reposted it on Oct. 18.
Rounding out the playlist was a late-September segment showing Trump’s support among MAGA Republicans dipping only from 99 percent to 98 percent.
The president first posted it Sept. 28 and has since screened it at rallies like a well-worn home movie. What he hasn’t posted is Sunday’s Enten video, the one with the word “blowout” in it.
The White House did not immediately respond to the Daily Beast’s request for comment.
“Don’t be angry with me, because the numbers do the talking and I just listen,” Enten said.
